Structure, scenarios, and the discipline of saying something specific
Read time: 7 min · Kasper-Tanakrit Sermsuksan, Founder, SEA Bridge
There is a version of market research that is thorough, well-cited, and completely useless to the person who commissioned it. The findings are accurate. The analysis is competent. But the document does not tell the client what to do. It tells them what exists.
A research report that produces no decision is not a deliverable. It is a filing cabinet. The gap between findings and recommendation is not small — it requires a specific step: taking what you found, interpreting what it means for this specific client with this specific capital position in this specific market, and stating clearly what they should do about it.
“The best market researchers are not the ones who find the most data. They are the ones who know which data changes the decision.”
— SEA Bridge
The Pyramid Principle: conclusion first, evidence after
Developed by Barbara Minto at McKinsey, the Pyramid Principle is the structural logic behind every professional consulting deliverable. The rule: lead with the answer, support it with grouped arguments, support each argument with data. Never build toward a conclusion.
A client reading a strategic memo should know the recommendation by the end of the first paragraph. Everything that follows — the analysis, the market data, the scenarios — is support for a position already stated. If you are writing "therefore we recommend" anywhere other than the first page, restructure. The recommendation goes at the top.
Barbara Minto — The Pyramid Principle: https://www.barbaraminto.com
Ansoff Matrix: naming what kind of expansion this is
Before building the recommendation, name the type of expansion. The Ansoff Matrix frames four options: Market Penetration (existing product, existing market), Market Development (existing product, new market), Product Development (new product, existing market), and Diversification (new product, new market).
Most ASEAN expansion engagements are Market Development — a proven product or service entering a new geography. Naming this explicitly matters because it tells you where the risk actually lives: not in the product, which is already validated at home, but in the market fit and the entry model. The research and recommendation should be organized around that specific risk.
A food brand entering Vietnam with a product that sells well in Thailand is doing Market Development. The product is proven. The question is whether Vietnamese consumers hire it for the same job, whether existing packaging and pricing work in this market, and whether the distribution model transfers. That is a different risk profile from launching a new product, and the recommendation should reflect it.
Four-part recommendation structure
Part 1. What we found
The most important findings from Blocks C and D. What the market looks like. What competitors are doing. What primary research revealed that secondary research missed. One page maximum.
Part 2. What it means
The interpretive layer: what these findings mean for this specific client with their capital position. Name the FISHE bottleneck. State what it implies for timing and strategy.
Part 3. What you should do
Specific actions, sequenced, with rationale. Not options to consider. A recommendation states a position: "You should enter via X, because Y, starting with Z."
Part 4. What happens in each scenario
Three distinct strategic paths driven by different assumptions proving true or false. What to monitor. What to do if the base-case assumption breaks.
Three scenarios: different paths, not optimism levels
The most common scenario-building mistake is producing three versions of the same plan — optimistic, realistic, pessimistic — at different speeds. These are not scenarios. They are the same strategy with different confidence levels.
Real scenarios represent genuinely different strategic paths, each driven by a different assumption. For a creative economy brand entering Indonesia: one scenario assumes a local distribution partner is found within three months and anchors the GTM strategy around existing retail channels. A second assumes the partner search takes eight months and the entry starts digital-first. A third assumes a regional competitor enters the same segment six months earlier and changes the pricing and positioning dynamic entirely. These require different strategies, not different budgets.
Each scenario must name the single assumption that drives it. If two scenarios could be addressed by the same strategy at different budget levels, they are not genuinely different. Rewrite them.
The A–E entry framework: when does everything happen
Every recommended action needs a phase tag. The A–E framework answers the client's most common unasked question: when does this actually happen?
Phase A — Accessing
Research complete. Client confirmed the market is worth investigating. Entry planning begins.
Phase B — Beginning
Full picture clear. First partner or customer conversations started.
Phase C — Creating
Active market entry. First transactions, partnerships, or enrollments.
Phase D — Developing
Early traction. Client iterating on what works. In-market capability growing.
Phase E — Extending
Model proven. Scaling deeper in market or preparing the next.
The So What test: apply it to every paragraph
"Vietnam's wellness market grew at 18% CAGR in 2023." So what? "This growth rate, combined with the rising middle class and increased health awareness post-pandemic, creates a three-to-five year window before international platform players establish enough distribution relationships to define channel terms for new entrants — which makes timing a real strategic question, not a theoretical one." Now it matters.
The So What chain runs through the entire recommendation. Every finding connects to an implication. Every implication connects to an action. If any link is missing, the recommendation has a gap. Apply the test before every paragraph is finalized.
Further reading
Working on an expansion into ASEAN?
SEA Bridge supports companies in Wellness & Longevity, Food & F&B, AI & Digital, Creative Economy, and Education across Southeast Asia — from market diagnosis through to go-to-market execution. We bring both the methodology and the network to make things move.
Get in touch: team@seabridge.space
A Note for ASEAN1967 & B2M Fellows
The presentation to Kasper is a professional conversation about a real strategic question. He will challenge your scenarios. He will ask what happens if the assumption driving your base case turns out to be wrong. Have an answer. The Fellows who do best are the ones who know their research well enough to defend it and adapt in real time. If your recommendation contains the word "explore," rewrite it. That is not a recommendation.
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